Maharashtra Polls: What Early Trends Reveal About the Real Shiv Sena

Eknath Shinde led the mutiny that the split Uddhav Thackeray's party in 2022

Eknath Shinde led the mutiny that the split Uddhav Thackeray's party in 2022

Mumbai: As early results trickle in for Maharashtra’s Assembly polls, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena seems to be gaining a decisive edge over the Uddhav Thackeray faction in their fight to claim the legacy of Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. While these are preliminary figures, the trends indicate a significant lead for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance, of which Shinde’s faction is a part.

By 9:40 am, the Shinde Sena was leading in 53 of the 81 seats it contested, whereas the Thackeray-led faction was ahead in 23 of the 95 seats it fought. Overall, the NDA alliance, including Shinde’s camp, was leading in 188 seats, far outpacing the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which is trailing at 77 seats.

This comes months after the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, where Shinde’s faction secured a better strike rate, winning seven out of 15 contested seats. In contrast, the Thackeray faction managed to win nine out of 21 seats. At the time, the INDIA bloc’s strong performance allowed the Thackeray camp to claim a moral victory in the battle for Shiv Sena’s identity. However, the latest Assembly poll trends hint at Shinde’s resurgence as a formidable force in state politics.

The roots of this rivalry trace back to 2022, when Eknath Shinde led a rebellion within the Shiv Sena, splitting the party and toppling the Uddhav Thackeray-led government, which was in alliance with the Congress and NCP. Shinde’s subsequent alliance with the BJP paved his way to the Chief Minister’s office.

Amid speculations that the BJP might push for the Chief Minister’s seat if it performs well in these elections, Shinde’s strong showing could bolster his position in negotiations over government formation.

One of the most-watched contests in this election is in Worli, where Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya Thackeray is locked in a battle with Congress defector and former Union Minister Milind Deora. As of now, Aaditya Thackeray is leading in the seat.

With counting still underway, it remains to be seen if Eknath Shinde can consolidate his claim as the leader of the “real” Shiv Sena or if the Thackeray faction can mount a late comeback.

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