Doha, Qatar: The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israel has dealt a significant blow to the militant group. However, analysts suggest that while Sinwar’s death leaves a void at the top, Hamas militants remain committed to their cause and could potentially use his legacy to galvanize new supporters.
Sinwar, regarded as the mastermind behind the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, had only recently assumed leadership after the death of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh. The elimination of Sinwar has been hailed by Israel as a major achievement, though experts believe that the internal structure of Hamas could still drive the group’s future actions.
Impact of Sinwar’s Death on Hamas
Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya confirmed Sinwar’s death on Friday, mourning him as a “great leader.” According to Andreas Krieg of King’s College London, Sinwar’s assassination has created a leadership vacuum that may disrupt coordination within the organization’s different factions.
Beyond Sinwar, several top Hamas figures have been eliminated or targeted in recent months, including military leader Mohammed Deif (whose death Hamas denied) and Haniyeh, who died under mysterious circumstances in Iran, with Hamas blaming Israel. Analysts say internal rifts have emerged between Hamas’s political leaders in exile and its military commanders in Gaza, further complicating the group’s future.
Who Could Replace Sinwar?
Several candidates are being considered to replace Sinwar. These include:
- Khalil al-Hayya – Based in Qatar, he has been involved in past negotiations for a truce and hostage exchanges.
- Khaled Meshaal – A former Hamas leader, now in exile, known for his political experience.
- Mohammed Sinwar – Yahya’s younger brother, a military commander in Gaza, who is seen as a likely successor despite lacking the same charismatic leadership.
The focus of the movement may shift further towards militant operations, with analysts predicting that the next leader could emerge from within Hamas’s operational ranks.
Can Hamas Recover?
Hamas has historically shown resilience despite the elimination of its leaders. According to James Dorsey from the National University of Singapore, Hamas views such losses as part of its struggle, with Sinwar now joining the ranks of martyrs celebrated within the organization.
Dorsey suggests that Sinwar’s legacy will be inseparable from the October 7 attack, which ignited the current conflict. He adds that Hamas could continue to attract new recruits driven by desperation and a lack of hope in Gaza. “If you’ve lost everything, you’ve got nothing to lose,” he said, indicating that the deteriorating humanitarian situation could sustain support for the group.
While Sinwar’s death marks a tactical defeat, analysts believe it may not change the trajectory of Hamas’s armed resistance. The outcome of the war, as well as conditions in Gaza, will play a critical role in determining how Hamas rebuilds and evolves in the future.
